The Blueprint for NCAA Basketball Success: Veteran Leadership Over 5-Star Hype
For programs looking to win an NCAA Championship or make a deep run in the tournament, relying solely on a star-studded recruiting class of 5-star freshmen may not be the most reliable path. The real key to building a championship team is finding experienced players through the transfer portal, assembling a core of veterans, and allowing the team to develop and grow together over time.
Recent history backs this up. UConn's 2023 and 2024 National Championship teams were structured differently, but both thrived due to a mix of seasoned players, one or two highly-rated recruits, and transfers who contributed significantly to their success. In contrast, other programs that relied heavily on recruiting top-ranked prospects—such as Memphis in 2022, with Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates, and Kentucky in 2024, featuring three 5-star recruits in Aaron Bradshaw, DJ Wagner, and Justin Edwards—experienced disappointing outcomes. Even worse, those 5-star recruits never got drafted, or stayed in college. Kentucky's highly-touted roster failed to secure an SEC championship and was knocked out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, 22-year-old JUCO transfer Dalton Knecht emerged as a dominant force for the Tennessee Volunteers to the Elite Eight, underscoring the value of veteran presence and building through the transfer portal.
Kansas’ 2021-2022 national championship squad and North Carolina’s runner-up finish that same year further exemplify the trend: teams that prioritize experienced players often outperform those with rosters dominated by freshmen. Even before the emergence of the transfer portal and NIL, programs such as Villanova (2016, 2018) and Virginia (2019) built championship teams with veteran-heavy rosters, creating a foundation of maturity, discipline, and team cohesion that freshmen-heavy teams often lack.
Duke's 2018-19 team, which boasted NBA talent like Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones, fell to a more seasoned Michigan State squad led by senior Cassius Winston. That loss more than ever highlighted the difference between raw talent and the polish and poise that come from years of college experience.
The Limitations of Freshman-Heavy Teams
When assembling a team primarily made up of top-ranked freshmen, several challenges arise. While these players are undeniably talented, they are still in the early stages of development, both physically and mentally. Unlike seasoned college athletes, they lack the experience needed to handle the rigors of a long season and the intensity of tournament play. Additionally, there can often be a bias among 5-star recruits who are driven to pad their stats and showcase their skills on film for NBA scouts rather than prioritizing team success. This focus on individual performance can create chemistry issues and disrupt team dynamics.
During my time as a student manager for USF Women’s Basketball, head coach Jose Fernandez once highlighted after a practice, “The best teams are player-led.” While coaches are paramount to on-court performance, they have limited opportunities to leave a lasting impact on players compared to the influence teammates can have on each other. Outside of practice—whether in the locker room, athlete housing, or team bonding activities—veterans can shape the team's culture, holding each other accountable and fostering an environment of hard work and brotherhood. On the other hand, a team filled with freshmen with no prior experience or rapport can struggle to come together, as many are used to being the star of their high school teams. When egos clash, selfishness emerges, and dysfunction can take over, leading to inconsistent performances and missed potential.